trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +2.1% | -7.7% | 40% | 20% | -8.8% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 29% | 14% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 17 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 24% | 12% | -9.2% |
| all | 28 | -5.9% | -14.8% | 39% | 7% | -12.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.8% | 7% | -12.6% |
| 10% | -23.0% | 0% | -20.9% |
| 15% | -30.4% | 0% | -28.6% |
| 20% | -37.2% | 0% | -35.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alberta join the US? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 19 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 18 | $17 | +$2 | +11% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 17 | $44 | $0 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 26 | $22 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 26 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $43 | +$1 | +2% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 25 | $7 | +$1 | +18% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 23 | $27 | $0 | -0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 23 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 21 | $18 | −$1 | -4% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 21 | $10 | $0 | -4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 21 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 20 | $3 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | May 20 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 20 | $7 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be less than 47.0% on March 14? | Mar 17 | $4 | −$3 | -79% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? | Mar 15 | $31 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 | Mar 12 | $36 | $0 | +1% |
| San José State vs. Colorado State | Mar 06 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Colorado vs. Texas Tech | Mar 04 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon talk more than Trump during Hannity interview? | Mar 04 | $56 | $0 | +0% |