Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36ed…45d6 crypto 354 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$72 (+3%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate54%189W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day63.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$37
world 1% $0
sports 1% +$6
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -26.2% -33.3% 43% 28% -24.3%
≤30d 352 -17.5% -25.4% 54% 41% -10.9%
≤90d 352 -17.5% -25.4% 54% 41% -10.9%
all 352 -17.5% -25.4% 54% 41% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 41% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 25% -19.4%
15% -39.0% 14% -27.2%
20% -45.0% 9% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 38% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses189 / 163
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)352 / 354
History coverage25d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day63.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 99¢ 96¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $49 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $77 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$7 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -49%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.33 · official $21.33 (match) · 1709 history records