Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:11:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x36ef…0958
weather · 302 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$33 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$30 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$242
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses185 / 20
Open positions97
Markets (closed)205 / 302
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day174.6
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 97 History 205 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 97¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 95¢ 98¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? No 84¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 78¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? No 91¢ 90¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? No 72¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 93¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? No 95¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? No 61¢ 63¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 61¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? No 76¢ 77¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 88% +$36
crypto 11% $0
other 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 73¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 81¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $1 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 +9.3% -1.1% 90% 17% -7.5%
≤30d 205 +9.3% -1.1% 90% 17% -7.5%
≤90d 205 +9.3% -1.1% 90% 17% -7.5%
all 205 +9.3% -1.1% 90% 17% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover174.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 17% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 1% -16.3%
15% -19.2% 0% -24.4%
20% -27.2% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.90 · official $241.91 (match) · 817 history records