Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x36f2…a6fa
sports · 1542 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$351 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$317 · open +$34
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$822
Realized+$317
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses803 / 627
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions46
Markets (closed)1430 / 1542
History coverage50d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day52.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 46 History 1430 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$507
14 days+$634
30 days+$739
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 68¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner G2 NORD 30¢ 100¢ $25 $85 +$60 (+237%)
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner UCAM Esports Club 41¢ 100¢ $26 $64 +$38 (+144%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 56¢ 80¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+42%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+4%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 64¢ 66¢ $26 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 44¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 41¢ 42¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+34%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Team Heretics Academy 56¢ 52¢ $26 $25 −$2 (-6%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-13%)
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp Blue 70¢ 100¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+43%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-7%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 51¢ 62¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+21%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres 47¢ 48¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 48¢ 48¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 52¢ 52¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 48¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 38¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-41%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $16 +$4 +23%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $23 +$37 +163%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$18 +69%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 +$16 +64%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $15 +$17 +109%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +117%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 +$11 +249%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$7 +138%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $4 +$2 +45%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 +$17 +316%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $5 +$8 +165%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +122%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +72%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $15 +$20 +128%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $5 +$16 +344%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$4 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $11 +$11 +101%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $4 +$2 +34%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% +$655
other 13% −$105
crypto 6% −$185
politics 0% +$12
world 0% −$28
culture 0% +$6
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 13m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 13m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 68¢ $3 16m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 16m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 16m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 66¢ $5 18m
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 28¢ $2 30m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 43m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 43m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $11 56m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $15 59m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $15 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $15 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $15 1h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 41¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 54¢ $5 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 17¢ $3 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 33¢ $5 1h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 65¢ $26 1h
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 NORD 36¢ $9 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $16 1h
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 NORD 27¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 69¢ $5 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $16 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $15 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 2h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 70¢ $15 2h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 62¢ $15 2h
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 24¢ $5 2h
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 24¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 591 +0.2% -9.4% 52% 51% -0.7%
≤30d 979 +4.2% -5.7% 55% 53% -1.9%
≤90d 1430 -1.1% -10.5% 56% 51% -7.3%
all 1430 -1.1% -10.5% 56% 51% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover52.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 51% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 44% -16.2%
15% -26.9% 37% -24.3%
20% -34.1% 29% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $821.99 · official $821.90 (match) · 3434 history records