Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
36 0x36f9…4df8 sports 168 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,042 (+5%) realized +$6,976 · open −$934
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%95W / 71L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$689per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$1,663est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147
7 days−$1,404
14 days−$4,111
30 days−$9,006
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$8,539
other 2% −$2,804
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +13.3% +2.5% 57% 57% -18.0%
≤30d 87 +0.3% -9.3% 53% 52% -22.0%
≤90d 166 +8.8% -1.6% 57% 55% -4.2%
all 166 +8.8% -1.6% 57% 55% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 55% -4.2%
10% -11.0% 55% -13.4%
15% ← realistic here -19.6% 55% -21.8%
20% -27.5% 55% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$818) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$576 vs −$677 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$6,976
Unrealized−$934
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses95 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,663
Open positions2
Markets (closed)166 / 168
History coverage49d
Avg bet$689
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $908 $1 −$907 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 2 Winner Infinite 54¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $756 +$644 +85%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $245 +$209 +85%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,724 −$1,724 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $763 −$763 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $675 −$675 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $661 +$688 +104%
Map Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 19 $378 +$382 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $280 +$282 +101%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $631 −$631 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $2 +$2 +101%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $621 +$529 +85%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $38 +$32 +85%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $999 +$851 +85%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $530 +$470 +89%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,007 −$1,007 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $540 −$540 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $952 +$799 +84%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $492 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,531 +$1,127 +74%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $1,522 −$1,512 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,946 −$1,946 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,006 −$1,005 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $648 −$648 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $502 −$502 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,004 +$856 +85%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $756 +$644 +85%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $551 −$551 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $530 +$470 +89%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $347 +$308 +89%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $48 +$39 +82%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,026 +$874 +85%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $988 +$858 +87%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $543 −$540 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 09 $657 +$559 +85%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $530 +$470 +89%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $644 +$548 +85%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 06 $540 −$540 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 05 $630 +$552 +88%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $648 −$648 -100%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $648 −$648 -100%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoff Jun 03 $636 −$636 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $648 +$552 +85%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $1,008 +$989 +98%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 02 $386 −$386 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $604 −$604 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 G Jun 01 $1,040 +$960 +92%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $540 −$540 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $920 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 54¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 54¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 54¢ $173 18h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 54¢ $12 18h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 54¢ $1 18h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 54¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 54¢ $1 18h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 54¢ $1 18h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 54¢ $2 18h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 54¢ $4 18h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 54¢ $32 18h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 54¢ $12 18h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 54¢ $211 18h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 54¢ $83 18h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 54¢ $221 18h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 1 Winner BUY ReThink 54¢ $2 20h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 1 Winner BUY ReThink 54¢ $6 20h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 1 Winner BUY ReThink 54¢ $40 20h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 1 Winner BUY ReThink 54¢ $41 20h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 1 Winner BUY ReThink 54¢ $2 20h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 1 Winner BUY ReThink 54¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 1 Winner BUY ReThink 54¢ $145 20h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 1 Winner BUY ReThink 54¢ $7 20h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY FOKUS 50¢ $33 45h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY FOKUS 50¢ $10 45h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY FOKUS 50¢ $5 45h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY FOKUS 50¢ $951 45h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $908 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $0.85 (match) · 1382 history records