Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:25:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
36 0x36f9…d1ba other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$215 (-11%) realized −$214 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days−$92
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$110
other 44% −$103
world 8% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.5% -9.1% 73% 47% -14.5%
≤30d 15 +0.5% -9.1% 73% 47% -14.5%
≤90d 17 +4.4% -5.6% 76% 53% -13.9%
all 18 +2.3% -7.4% 72% 50% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 50% -14.2%
10% -16.3% 28% -22.4%
15% -24.4% 28% -29.9%
20% -31.8% 17% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$80 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized−$214
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage109d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Czechia 94¢ 94¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Jun 18 $155 +$19 +12%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 18 $150 +$5 +3%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $133 +$18 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $171 −$170 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$80 +112%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $43 +$48 +113%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $76 +$53 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $107 +$1 +1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $107 −$106 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $178 +$30 +17%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $267 +$16 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 01 $18 +$4 +22%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 20 $12 +$6 +45%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $23 −$7 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 1h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Czechia 94¢ $100 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $71 1h
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) BUY Uzbekistan 89¢ $155 8h
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) BUY Panama 97¢ $150 11h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 88¢ $133 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $171 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 46¢ $71 33h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 58¢ $76 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 46¢ $43 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $15 2d
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) SELL IR Iran 98¢ $15 2d
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 99¢ $107 3d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 85¢ $77 3d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 85¢ $100 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $67 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 77¢ $22 77d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 63¢ $18 89d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $18 89d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 67¢ $12 109d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 109d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 109d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 1¢ $3 109d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 1¢ $1 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.41 · official $171.41 (match) · 46 history records