Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

36 0x36fb…12ce crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$178 (-15%) realized −$144 · open −$34

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate48%10W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$46per market

Trades / day61.0pace

Kalshi-fit85%portable

Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)+8.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+20.1%	+8.7%	48%	48%	+6.5%
≤30d	21	+20.1%	+8.7%	48%	48%	+6.5%
≤90d	21	+20.1%	+8.7%	48%	48%	+6.5%
all	21	+20.1%	+8.7%	48%	48%	+6.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover61.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+8.7%	48%	+6.5%
10% ← realistic here	-1.7%	48%	-3.7%
15%	-11.2%	38%	-13.0%
20%	-19.9%	29%	-21.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -1% → late +39% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$59 vs −$38 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.43 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$123

Realized−$144

Unrealized−$34

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses10 / 11

Open positions5

Markets (closed)21 / 26

History coverage1d

Avg bet$46

Trades / day61.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	4¢	$65	$52	−$13 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	15¢	$25	$29	+$4 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$23	$23	−$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$25	$20	−$5 (-21%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	4¢	0¢	$19	$0	−$19 (-97%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Jun 23	$260	+$74	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 23	$78	+$38	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Jun 23	$79	+$302	+382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 23	$67	+$60	+90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 23	$92	−$88	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 23	$11	−$2	-20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 23	$32	−$32	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 23	$53	−$50	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 23	$53	−$53	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 23	$26	+$70	+266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 23	$26	+$15	+58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 22	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 22	$21	−$8	-38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 22	$10	+$5	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 22	$16	+$5	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 22	$16	−$16	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Jun 22	$5	+$19	+368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Jun 22	$5	+$4	+81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 22	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Jun 22	$131	−$125	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	SELL Up	52¢	$286	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$105	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$104	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	SELL Up	63¢	$48	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$26	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$26	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	SELL Up	59¢	$116	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$26	7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$26	8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$26	8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$27	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	SELL Up	87¢	$131	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$26	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$26	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$5	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$5	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$5	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$25	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$26	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$92	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	SELL Up	65¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$27	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$26	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.33 · official $123.33 (match) · 75 history records