Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36ff…e0f0 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate50%20W / 20L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$7
other 18% +$8
politics 12% −$1
sports 11% +$20
crypto 8% $0
weather 5% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 9 -4.8% -13.9% 0% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 12 -6.7% -15.6% 8% 0% -13.6%
all 40 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 10% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 10% -7.3%
10% -16.7% 8% -16.2%
15% -24.7% 8% -24.3%
20% -32.1% 5% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses20 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage486d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $15 $0 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $2 $0 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $32 −$5 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $45 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $42 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $17 −$6 -36%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect Dec 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 14 $1 $0 -17%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 14 $16 −$1 -6%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 10 $20 $0 +0%
Champions League Quarterfinals: Barcelona vs. Dortmund Apr 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $14 +$8 +58%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 06 $19 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 24? Mar 25 $32 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 23 $2 +$1 +42%
Michigan State vs. Maryland Mar 21 $12 +$20 +178%
Utah vs. Arizona Feb 26 $1 $0 -27%
Radford vs. Gardner Webb Feb 26 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 26 $11 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $11 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $40 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $1 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $0 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $0 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $27 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $30 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $2 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $40 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $23 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $18 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 66¢ $44 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 67¢ $45 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $2 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $2 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $1 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $40 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $42 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $11 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 106 history records