Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:18:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.0
score
37 0x3705…9677 sports 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,088 (+29%) realized +$10,131 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%18W / 24L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$735per market
Trades / day36.4pace
Fees−$594est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$12,274
other 21% −$2,608
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +36.1% +23.1% 43% 43% +17.0%
≤30d 42 +36.1% +23.1% 43% 43% +17.0%
≤90d 42 +36.1% +23.1% 43% 43% +17.0%
all 42 +36.1% +23.1% 43% 43% +17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.1% 43% +17.0%
10% +11.3% 43% +5.8%
15% ← realistic here +0.6% 38% -4.4%
20% -9.3% 38% -13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$1,084) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +31% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,406 vs −$650 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,374
Realized+$10,131
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses18 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$594
Open positions5
Markets (closed)42 / 47
History coverage4d
Avg bet$735
Trades / day36.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 24¢ 24¢ $448 $439 −$9 (-2%)
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Ekaterine Gorgodze 28¢ 24¢ $372 $331 −$41 (-11%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Nikola Bartunkova 12¢ 12¢ $199 $208 +$8 (+4%)
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Hamad Medjedovic 43¢ 44¢ $198 $202 +$5 (+2%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 18¢ 18¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $197 +$482 +244%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $332 −$332 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $410 −$410 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,114 −$1,114 -100%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $3 +$8 +238%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,018 +$912 +90%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,287 +$2,127 +165%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $5 +$22 +442%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $526 +$1,532 +291%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche Jun 18 $1,022 −$1,022 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $1,528 +$504 +33%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $716 +$184 +26%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $313 −$313 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $1,097 −$69 -6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,076 −$1,076 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $723 −$723 -100%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $825 −$825 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $1,084 +$4,790 +442%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $786 +$1,378 +175%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $580 −$580 -100%
Linda Noskova vs. Diane Parry: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $745 −$745 -100%
Noskova vs. Parry: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 18 $362 +$424 +117%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $388 −$388 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,550 −$1,134 -73%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 18 $614 −$614 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $576 −$576 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $610 +$723 +119%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $314 +$618 +197%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $154 +$845 +549%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $746 +$903 +121%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $410 −$410 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $370 +$1,135 +307%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $925 +$860 +93%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,524 −$1,510 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,269 −$1,269 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5,425 +$7,861 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima SELL Brandon Nakashima 100¢ $679 0m
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $2 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $456 1h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 27¢ $174 1h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 28¢ $206 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $6 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $0 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $0 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $0 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $0 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $0 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $93 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 18¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,374.07 · official $1,374.07 (match) · 168 history records