Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x3708…b41f
crypto · 115 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$8 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses111 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 115
History coverage162d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 2 History 113 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 31? Jun 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 31? Jun 06 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 30 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on May 25? May 30 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 10? May 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 10? May 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 8? May 09 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? May 09 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 19? May 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 11? Apr 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 18 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 9? Apr 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $80 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $1 +$2 +156%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 7? Apr 08 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 6? Apr 07 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 5? Apr 06 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? Apr 04 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 2? Apr 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 1? Apr 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 30? Mar 31 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 29? Mar 30 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 27? Mar 29 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 27? Mar 29 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 24? Mar 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on March 23? Mar 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 21? Mar 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 19? Mar 20 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 18? Mar 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 16? Mar 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 9? Mar 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $57 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$7
economics 1% $0
other 0% $0
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 17h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $60 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $70 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $80 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $60 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 38d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $60 56d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $50 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 65d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $48 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $57 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $70 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 5? BUY No 100¢ $57 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 71d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $60 72d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $47 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $80 73d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.1% -17.8% 50% 50% -17.5%
≤30d 10 -3.6% -12.7% 80% 20% -9.5%
≤90d 48 +2.6% -7.2% 96% 6% -9.4%
all 113 +1.2% -8.4% 98% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.2% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.2% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.5% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 229 history records