Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3709…82a5 sports 234 markets active 0h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$115 (-0%) realized −$86 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate85%197W / 36L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$453per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$838now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$107
14 days+$108
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$285
world 15% −$118
other 14% −$466
culture 2% +$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -1.1% -10.6% 81% 6% -8.4%
≤30d 36 -0.6% -10.1% 83% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 169 +1.6% -8.1% 89% 7% -7.9%
all 233 +1.5% -8.2% 85% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 10% -9.6%
10% -17.0% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$520) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$127 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$838
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses197 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions1
Markets (closed)233 / 234
History coverage223d
Avg bet$453
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Nigma Galaxy 97¢ 94¢ $866 $838 −$29 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $1,251 +$50 +4%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $574 −$157 -27%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $488 +$14 +3%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $1,069 +$36 +3%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $683 +$11 +2%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $634 +$15 +2%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $128 +$32 +25%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $1,269 +$30 +2%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $44 −$23 -52%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $33 +$2 +6%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $192 −$29 -15%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $961 +$22 +2%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $395 +$24 +6%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $212 +$18 +8%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $635 +$38 +6%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $406 +$24 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +20%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $110 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -19%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $96 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $142 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $48 +$2 +5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $202 +$18 +9%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $402 −$267 -67%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $370 +$6 +2%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $768 +$25 +3%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $630 +$46 +7%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $544 +$29 +5%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $297 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $65 +$5 +7%
Dota 2: by Owl Club vs Ramzes Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $123 +$4 +3%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $138 +$12 +8%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 1 Winner May 30 $689 +$11 +2%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $861 −$35 -4%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $439 +$24 +5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $148 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $489 +$11 +2%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $427 +$21 +5%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $468 −$26 -6%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $416 +$41 +10%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $177 +$4 +2%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $998 +$13 +1%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $642 +$38 +6%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $379 +$16 +4%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $300 +$13 +4%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $158 +$12 +7%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $106 −$1 -1%
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $345 +$11 +3%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $459 +$11 +2%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $326 +$11 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 98¢ $7 0m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 98¢ $10 0m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 98¢ $24 0m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 98¢ $49 0m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 99¢ $297 1m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 99¢ $37 1m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 99¢ $1 1m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 99¢ $4 1m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 99¢ $156 1m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 94¢ $31 2m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 94¢ $9 3m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 94¢ $7 3m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 94¢ $47 5m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 94¢ $188 7m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 81¢ $194 7m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 81¢ $15 7m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 81¢ $34 7m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 92¢ $138 14m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 85¢ $43 16m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 80¢ $80 16m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 74¢ $3 23m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 74¢ $19 23m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 74¢ $14 23m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 72¢ $22 25m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 79¢ $16 26m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $1,301 31m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 98¢ $98 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 96¢ $38 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 97¢ $195 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 92¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $837.84 · official $831.32 (match) · 2234 history records