Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3709…db0c sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 508d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$3
world 23% −$12
crypto 8% −$38
sports 6% +$13
weather 6% +$28
politics 5% −$4
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +29.1% +16.8% 44% 44% -7.1%
≤30d 9 +29.1% +16.8% 44% 44% -7.1%
≤90d 16 -16.0% -24.0% 31% 31% -10.5%
all 44 -9.9% -18.5% 25% 16% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 16% -10.7%
10% -26.3% 16% -19.2%
15% -33.4% 16% -27.0%
20% -40.0% 14% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

508d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage508d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $288 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 17 $295 −$1 -0%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 17 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $16 −$9 -53%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 17 $14 +$7 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $8 +$9 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 14 $21 +$23 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$8 +149%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 16? May 18 $15 +$12 +83%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? May 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 4? May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 2? May 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%? Dec 18 $9 $0 -3%
Spurs vs. Bulls Nov 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Jets vs. Ducks Nov 11 $9 +$12 +127%
Oregon vs. Iowa Nov 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Heat Nov 09 $8 +$11 +138%
Hornets vs. Pelicans Nov 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? Oct 08 $12 −$10 -79%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 08 $2 $0 -6%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 06 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 05 $1 $0 -2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Oct 04 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Sep 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? Sep 26 $22 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Sep 22 $23 −$1 -2%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Sep 18 $22 −$2 -10%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 05 $12 −$1 -5%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 05 $28 −$1 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 11 $7 $0 -4%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Apr 10 $31 −$1 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $20 $0 -2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 06 $8 $0 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? Apr 04 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $3 $0 -6%
Yoon reinstated as President before July? Mar 29 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 24-31? Jan 31 $2 $0 -4%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 31 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $287 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $288 7h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $294 7h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $295 12h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $282 12h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $283 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 25h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 66¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 46¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 47¢ $21 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 16? BUY No 53¢ $15 33d
Wild vs. Avalanche BUY Wild 34¢ $2 35d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 41¢ $4 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? BUY No 26¢ $14 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 42d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 4? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 45d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 2? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 47d
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%? SELL No 97¢ $9 182d
Spurs vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 37¢ $5 219d
Jets vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 44¢ $9 220d
Trail Blazers vs. Heat BUY Heat 42¢ $8 221d
Oregon vs. Iowa BUY Iowa 32¢ $2 223d
Hornets vs. Pelicans BUY Hornets 44¢ $3 225d
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%? BUY No 100¢ $9 230d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? SELL No 7¢ $3 252d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 252d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? BUY No 33¢ $12 252d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records