Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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37 0x3709…3d7e crypto 697 markets active 0h ago coverage 522d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ Covers last 522d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30,196 (-15%) realized −$30,194 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%212W / 504L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 522d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$39,135
culture 9% −$1,755
politics 2% −$1,514
world 0% −$511
other 0% −$191
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 274 -22.5% -29.9% 34% 31% -34.3%
≤30d 308 -24.6% -31.8% 34% 31% -31.7%
≤90d 358 -26.4% -33.4% 35% 30% -28.6%
all 716 -34.0% -40.3% 30% 24% -37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.3% 24% -37.3%
10% -46.0% 20% -43.3%
15% -51.2% 16% -48.8%
20% -56.0% 13% -53.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -42% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$146 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30,194
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses212 / 504
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)716 / 697
History coverage522d ⚠
Avg bet$294
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 716 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 424 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Macron out as president of France in 2024? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross less than $16m on 3-day opening weekend Jun 16 $270 −$270 -100%
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross less than $52m on 3-day opening wee Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $16-19m on 3-day opening weeken Jun 16 $258 −$251 -98%
Will 'Nosferatu' gross between $20-25m on 5-day opening weekend? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Everton wins the Premier League? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross more than $25m on 3-day opening weekend Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $52-58m on 3-day opening we Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on December 27? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Will 'Nosferatu' gross between $25-30m on 5-day opening weekend? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? Jun 16 $357 −$351 -98%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $19-22m on 3-day opening weeken Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20? Jun 16 $3,760 −$3,701 -98%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $22-25m on 3-day opening weeken Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Will 'Sonic 3' gross more than $80m on 3-day opening weekend? Jun 16 $166 −$232 -139%
Election certified on January 6? Jun 16 $1,478 −$937 -63%
Will 'Nosferatu' gross under $20m on 5-day opening weekend? Jun 16 $94 −$94 -100%
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend? Jun 16 $144 −$856 -594%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$9 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$48 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$24 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $58 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $63 +$23 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $111 +$149 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$38 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $95 −$90 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $111 +$67 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$58 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $84 +$77 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $74 −$70 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $58 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $47 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $39 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $42 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $101 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $75 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $53 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $32 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 3500 history records