Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3711…5edb crypto 1216 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,768 (-3%) realized −$1,768 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%484W / 732L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day37.5pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 87d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$5,466
sports 1% −$499
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -12.2% -20.6% 39% 37% -25.6%
≤30d 338 -15.4% -23.4% 38% 36% -26.5%
≤90d 1216 -11.8% -20.2% 40% 36% -18.9%
all 1216 -11.8% -20.2% 40% 36% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 36% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 33% -26.7%
15% -34.8% 29% -33.8%
20% -41.2% 25% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$39 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,768
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses484 / 732
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1216 / 1216
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1216 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$12 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$54 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $68 +$25 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$35 +834%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $166 −$53 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$68 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $65 −$62 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $13 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $6 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records