Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x3713…96c6
other · 24 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$268 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$267 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$150
Realized−$267
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses4 / 19
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage13d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%
Chart Positions 1 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$159
14 days−$267
30 days−$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $151 $150 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Yes 54¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Yes 34¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $99 −$34 -34%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $81 −$56 -70%
Thailand leading at halftime? Jun 09 $30 −$19 -64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $32 −$32 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $51 −$18 -36%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $21 −$5 -26%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 +$6 +112%
France leading at halftime? Jun 04 $57 −$29 -50%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $5 $0 +7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $245 −$22 -9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $51 +$57 +112%
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $74 −$62 -84%
Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 04 $12 −$1 -11%
Will Singapore win on 2026-06-05? Jun 04 $69 −$7 -10%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $52 +$36 +70%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime? May 30 $12 −$10 -84%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 30 $12 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $19 −$6 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 85% −$319
sports 10% −$6
world 4% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $154 1h
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 37¢ $65 3d
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 3d
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 3d
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 3d
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 3d
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 3d
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes $25 3d
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 3d
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 3d
Thailand leading at halftime? SELL Yes $11 3d
Thailand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 3d
Thailand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 3d
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 34¢ $32 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 22¢ $32 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 54¢ $22 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes $5 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes $6 8d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes $11 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes $3 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes $10 8d
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 29¢ $28 8d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 8d
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes $4 8d
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -60.6% -64.4% 0% 0% -58.7%
≤30d 23 -27.8% -34.7% 17% 13% -33.7%
≤90d 23 -27.8% -34.7% 17% 13% -33.7%
all 23 -27.8% -34.7% 17% 13% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 13% -33.7%
10% -40.9% 13% -40.0%
15% -46.6% 13% -45.8%
20% -51.9% 13% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.77 · official $149.77 (match) · 61 history records