Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:01:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3719…2df0 sports 155 markets active 30d ago coverage 134d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$50,810 (-4%) realized −$50,810 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%86W / 74L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,265per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$12,203est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39,353
7 days−$39,353
14 days−$39,353
30 days−$6,138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$77,077
economics 7% +$44,637
politics 4% +$2,483
finance 1% +$3,868
world 0% −$330
crypto 0% +$110
other 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -46.0% -51.1% 29% 29% -16.9%
≤90d 121 +3.3% -6.5% 58% 56% -11.6%
all 160 -3.1% -12.3% 54% 51% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 51% -14.0%
10% -20.7% 47% -22.3%
15% ← realistic here -28.4% 46% -29.8%
20% -35.4% 38% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$10,114) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,854 vs −$7,796 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50,810
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses86 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$12,203
Open positions0
Markets (closed)160 / 155
History coverage134d ⚠
Avg bet$8,265
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 160 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) Jun 29 $7,623 −$7,623 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $3,768 −$3,768 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $3,789 −$3,789 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Jun 29 $12,775 −$12,775 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Jun 29 $11,397 −$11,397 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 31 $21,767 +$21,724 +100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $14,638 +$11,491 +78%
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 08 $103 −$100 -97%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $10,443 +$21,170 +203%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 07 $5 +$5 +89%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 07 $10,620 −$10,620 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 07 $7,714 +$4,989 +65%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 07 $263 +$37 +14%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 07 $11,630 −$11,560 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics May 07 $10,020 +$6,651 +66%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $6,614 −$6,552 -99%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 04 $608 +$3 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 04 $2,695 +$1,764 +66%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $9,829 +$3,868 +39%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $21,632 −$21,466 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 26 $801 −$801 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 26 $388 +$413 +106%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $18,696 −$18,685 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $15,104 −$15,104 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $15,080 −$15,080 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $16,690 +$12,087 +72%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $23,579 +$13,216 +56%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $15,116 +$8,463 +56%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $82 +$18 +22%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $24,579 −$24,542 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $17,360 −$5,531 -32%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $6,563 +$3,366 +51%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $4,400 −$4,400 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $8,673 +$4,940 +57%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $12,200 −$12,198 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $8,400 +$6,600 +79%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 24 $19,350 −$19,019 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $11,169 +$4,348 +39%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $12,864 −$12,859 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $8,717 +$9,029 +104%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $10,549 −$10,538 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $12,400 −$12,399 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $11,000 −$10,963 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $8,740 +$10,179 +116%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $8,120 +$6,377 +78%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $5,120 −$4,777 -93%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $8,280 +$9,525 +115%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $9,540 +$10,284 +108%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $7,644 +$7,726 +101%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $7,360 +$8,381 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $12,487 29d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $231 29d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 56¢ $14,407 29d
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY DN SOOPers 4¢ $103 51d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL HANJIN BRION 100¢ $19,625 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Ninjas in Pyjamas 100¢ $10 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $4,720 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $5,786 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $0 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $0 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $1 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $3 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $8 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $0 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $0 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $4 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $1 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $72 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $0 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $0 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $0 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $2 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $20 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 59¢ $1 52d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL HANJIN BRION 100¢ $11,988 52d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 52¢ $5 52d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 33¢ $213 52d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 33¢ $8 52d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 33¢ $1 52d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 33¢ $0 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records