Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x371a…cc13 economics 5 markets active 4h ago coverage 87d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43,788 (-95%) realized −$42,354 · open −$1,434
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,248per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,064now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 87d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$32,609
economics 29% −$11,367
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$14,181 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$2,064
Realized−$42,354
Unrealized−$1,434
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage87d
Avg bet$9,248
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2,498 $1,230 −$1,267 (-51%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $833 −$166 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 15 $248 −$248 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $9,685 −$9,685 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 29 $32,629 −$32,609 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $580 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $1,050 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1,050 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $996 42h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $9 48d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1,680 48d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $2,100 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $248 58d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $995 58d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $203 58d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $2,703 58d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $2,069 80d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,000 80d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,000 80d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $572 80d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $3,000 80d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,000 81d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,000 81d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $2,000 81d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,000 81d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,000 81d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,000 81d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $500 81d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,000 82d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,000 82d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $5,431 84d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $10,056 86d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $1,996 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,063.66 · official $2,063.66 (match) · 30 history records