Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
37 0x371e…0f81 sports 563 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$307 (+0%) realized +$367 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%268W / 282L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$223est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$987now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,369
7 days+$698
14 days+$469
30 days+$583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$755
world 31% +$1,743
other 22% −$1,837
politics 1% +$157
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% −$18
culture 0% −$7
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -11.0% -19.5% 43% 24% -3.5%
≤30d 90 -14.4% -22.6% 43% 28% -7.0%
≤90d 367 -10.0% -18.6% 46% 34% -7.2%
all 550 -3.6% -12.7% 49% 39% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 39% -10.3%
10% -21.1% 30% -18.9%
15% -28.7% 22% -26.8%
20% -35.7% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$52 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$987
Realized+$367
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses268 / 282
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$223
Open positions13
Markets (closed)550 / 563
History coverage138d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 79¢ 78¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $600 −$18 -3%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1,074 +$438 +41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1,964 +$207 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 19 $406 +$165 +41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $400 +$600 +150%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -17%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, Jun 18 $25 −$19 -75%
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $131 −$130 -99%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $101 +$15 +15%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $400 −$400 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $2,258 −$47 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $560 +$78 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $1,630 +$40 +2%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $185 −$185 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $199 −$3 -2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $38 −$37 -99%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $101 −$3 -2%
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $101 −$3 -3%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +43%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $79 −$6 -8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $100 −$22 -22%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $101 −$3 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 08 $102 −$101 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $102 −$57 -56%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $101 +$40 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $28 −$8 -28%
Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $24 +$4 +15%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $23 +$1 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 +$2 +11%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $91 −$90 -99%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 05 $124 −$15 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $110 +$10 +9%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 03 $61 −$60 -99%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $125 −$34 -27%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 03 $35 −$3 -9%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 03 $5 −$2 -48%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$2 -30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $120 +$52 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $495 +$357 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $393 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $53 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $47 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $447 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $181 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $395 6h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 9h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 9h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $101 9h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $151 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $100 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $100 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $849 15h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 0¢ $15 17h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 17h
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, SELL Yes 1¢ $6 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $300 27h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $105 27h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $97 27h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $98 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $102 27h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $102 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $131 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $116 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $400 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $987.16 · official $987.44 (match) · 1368 history records