Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
37 0x371e…95a3 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$156 (-8%) realized −$156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$12
world 22% −$400
other 22% +$312
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 50% -13.3%
≤30d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 50% -13.3%
≤90d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 50% -13.3%
all 12 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 50% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 50% -13.3%
10% -17.3% 50% -21.6%
15% -25.3% 50% -29.1%
20% -32.7% 42% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$146 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$95 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $171 +$213 +124%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $98 −$29 -29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $154 −$150 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $406 −$400 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$255 +84%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $100 +$139 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $102 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $70 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $40 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 37¢ $30 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $98 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $103 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $51 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $103 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $103 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $559 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $304 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $101 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $102 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 41¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records