Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3720…7243 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+4%) realized +$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$7
world 34% −$1
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -24.8% -32.0% 40% 40% -5.5%
≤30d 5 -24.8% -32.0% 40% 40% -5.5%
≤90d 5 -24.8% -32.0% 40% 40% -5.5%
all 5 -24.8% -32.0% 40% 40% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 40% -5.5%
10% -38.5% 20% -14.6%
15% -44.4% 20% -22.8%
20% -49.9% 0% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$9 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $56 +$22 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$19 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $56 +$11 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.72 · official $98.72 (match) · 24 history records