Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:49:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x3721…7e0d
sports · 203 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$183 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$212 · open +$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$140
Realized−$212
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses153 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)200 / 203
History coverage260d
Avg bet$444
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 3 History 200 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 22¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-62%)
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers Celtics 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Cavaliers 50¢ 0¢ $296 $0 −$296 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Magic vs. Warriors Magic 41¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Heat vs. Warriors Heat 43¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Timberwolves 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Clippers Warriors 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Rockets Spurs 68¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Suns Knicks 47¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
76ers vs. Bulls 76ers 67¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Wizards Wizards 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5 Under 55¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Kings Kings 45¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4? No 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 +$19 +365%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$25 +83%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$37 +180%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 07 $300 −$296 -98%
Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April? May 07 $3 +$1 +30%
Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5) May 07 $156 +$140 +90%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 02 $203 +$154 +76%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5 May 01 $203 −$200 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $812 +$169 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 2 Mar 28 $43 +$10 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 28? Mar 28 $27 +$4 +16%
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? Mar 24 $25 −$21 -84%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Mar 22 $728 +$9 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $1,288 +$301 +23%
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14? Mar 15 $476 +$114 +24%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 11 $146 +$6 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 07 $477 +$23 +5%
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28? Mar 01 $1,003 +$65 +6%
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Mar 01 $28 +$22 +79%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Feb 24 $438 +$6 +1%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 24 $276 +$4 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $1,687 +$18 +1%
Pistons vs. Bulls Feb 22 $24 +$6 +23%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 21 $558 +$6 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 21 $189 +$2 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 20 $952 +$21 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $1,503 +$21 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $390 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 18 $962 +$14 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 05 $712 +$24 +3%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Feb 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $1,795 +$324 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on January 31? Jan 31 $358 −$168 -47%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $282 +$6 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: January Jan 31 $23 −$22 -94%
Rockets vs. Hawks Jan 30 $20 +$10 +54%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Jan 29 $20 +$4 +22%
Clippers vs. Jazz Jan 28 $100 +$11 +11%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 27 $261 +$29 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 36% −$2,024
world 23% +$1,343
other 18% +$427
politics 11% +$19
tech 4% +$66
economics 4% +$94
culture 2% +$13
crypto 1% −$154
weather 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $20 3h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $30 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 11h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 11h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 36h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 36h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 36h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 2d
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) BUY Cavaliers 50¢ $300 37d
Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5) BUY Cavaliers 52¢ $156 41d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 55¢ $203 43d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 45d
Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April? BUY No 77¢ $3 76d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 2 SELL No 99¢ $52 77d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 28? SELL Yes 70¢ $31 78d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 28? BUY Yes 61¢ $27 78d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 28? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 78d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 2 BUY No 81¢ $14 78d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 2 BUY No 81¢ $14 78d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 2 BUY No 81¢ $11 78d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 2 BUY No 80¢ $4 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +3.1% -6.7% 36% 36% -10.6%
≤30d 14 +3.1% -6.7% 36% 36% -10.6%
≤90d 25 +1.6% -8.1% 52% 48% -3.4%
all 200 -1.2% -10.6% 76% 28% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 28% -9.7%
10% -19.2% 16% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 10% -26.3%
20% -34.2% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.89 · official $139.89 (match) · 1237 history records