Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3723…5d55 crypto 315 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$249 (-2%) realized −$278 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate84%263W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$238
7 days−$231
14 days−$231
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 -1.0% -10.5% 92% 12% -11.1%
≤30d 314 -3.8% -13.0% 84% 18% -11.3%
≤90d 314 -3.8% -13.0% 84% 18% -11.3%
all 314 -3.8% -13.0% 84% 18% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 18% -11.3%
10% -21.3% 1% -19.8%
15% -28.9% 0% -27.5%
20% -35.9% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$29 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$278
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses263 / 51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)314 / 315
History coverage28d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $92 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$9 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.29 · official $51.29 (match) · 869 history records