Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
37 0x3728…4288 tech 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized −$107 · open +$139
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$681per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$4,443now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days−$286
14 days−$275
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 63% +$279
other 22% +$13
finance 13% −$306
crypto 2% +$11
politics 1% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -29.0% -35.8% 44% 0% -13.8%
≤30d 16 -22.2% -29.6% 56% 6% -10.5%
≤90d 16 -22.2% -29.6% 56% 6% -10.5%
all 16 -22.2% -29.6% 56% 6% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 6% -10.5%
10% -36.3% 0% -19.0%
15% -42.5% 0% -26.8%
20% -48.1% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$55 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$4,443
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$139
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage20d
Avg bet$681
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 91¢ 91¢ $2,639 $2,654 +$14 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $1,647 $1,772 +$126 (+8%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? No 3¢ 3¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? Jun 28 $3 −$2 -89%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 27 $612 +$60 +10%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Jun 27 $280 +$5 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 26 $546 +$4 +1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Jun 25 $949 −$10 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 25 $872 −$198 -23%
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 22 $66 −$43 -65%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 22 $370 +$17 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 22 $366 −$119 -32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 16 $201 +$11 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $2,020 +$41 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $361 +$39 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $12 −$3 -27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $9 −$8 -90%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $405 +$9 +2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $386 +$13 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? BUY No 3¢ $19 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $968 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $979 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $54 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $973 18h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $672 18h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $285 18h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $525 41h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $182 41h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on SELL No 98¢ $550 42h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $1,620 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $939 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 72¢ $674 3d
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 9¢ $16 5d
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 5d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 5d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $74 5d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $14 5d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 50¢ $8 5d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $112 6d
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 33¢ $66 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 91¢ $395 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $387 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL No 63¢ $0 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL No 63¢ $244 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 9d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $46 11d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $952 11d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $177 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,443.40 · official $4,443.70 (match) · 77 history records