Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x372a…b924
sports · 376 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$237 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$216 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$81
Realized+$216
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses208 / 162
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions6
Markets (closed)370 / 376
History coverage116d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 6 History 370 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$75
14 days+$99
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Katie Volynets 55¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+82%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 52¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+92%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 44¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+127%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Over 63¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+59%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 48¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+108%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Over 59¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+69%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Anna Blinkova 58¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+72%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Under 53¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+89%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Over 47¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+113%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Under 55¢ 53¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Over 54¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+85%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Under 54¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+85%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Elina Svitolina 66¢ 67¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 54¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Over 57¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 45¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Zachary Svajda 55¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 59¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $6 +$4 +81%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $3 +$2 +72%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $5 +$5 +91%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $5 −$3 -51%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +58%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $2 +$3 +125%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +84%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +84%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +78%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$10 +109%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +146%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $2 +$3 +111%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $24 +$23 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 −$2 -47%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$3 +146%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +46%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$2 +83%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +62%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 11 $2 +$3 +119%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $8 +$7 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $11 +$7 +57%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $12 +$21 +180%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $6 +$4 +73%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $3 +$2 +60%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 08 $3 +$2 +65%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $7 +$8 +109%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $3 +$2 +73%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $2 +$3 +140%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $3 +$2 +70%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% +$158
other 24% +$51
world 1% +$6
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $2 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 2h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 66¢ $3 5h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 56¢ $3 5h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 55¢ $3 6h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 55¢ $3 6h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 56¢ $3 7h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 55¢ $3 7h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 55¢ $3 8h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 58¢ $3 9h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $3 22h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $3 22h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $2 23h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 63¢ $3 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 26h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $2 27h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 27h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 27h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 28h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $3 28h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $4 29h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 43h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 44h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 44h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 44h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 44h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 45h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 45h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +14.7% +3.8% 61% 59% +21.9%
≤30d 81 +25.7% +13.7% 65% 64% +22.1%
≤90d 308 +11.1% +0.6% 58% 57% +3.7%
all 370 +9.7% -0.8% 56% 56% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 56% +0.1%
10% -10.3% 55% -9.5%
15% -18.9% 50% -18.2%
20% -26.9% 47% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.71 · official $80.71 (match) · 913 history records