Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:35:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x372b…cbf5 crypto 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,198 (+8%) realized +$6,885 · open −$687
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate61%47W / 30L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$996per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$345est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$182
7 days+$182
14 days+$8,174
30 days+$8,295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$1,228
sports 26% +$7,404
other 17% −$547
world 2% −$42
politics 0% +$14
tech 0% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -32.1% -38.6% 67% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 9 +29.8% +17.4% 67% 33% +23.8%
≤90d 9 +29.8% +17.4% 67% 33% +23.8%
all 77 +5.3% -4.8% 61% 31% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 31% -1.9%
10% -13.9% 25% -11.3%
15% -22.2% 23% -19.9%
20% -29.8% 21% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,260) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$284 vs −$255 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$1,334
Realized+$6,885
Unrealized−$687
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses47 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$345
Open positions3
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage269d
Avg bet$996
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1,008 $1,008 +$0 (+0%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $1,000 $310 −$690 (-69%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 45¢ 54¢ $14 $16 +$3 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4,752 +$48 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6,534 +$166 +2%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,712 +$6,288 +367%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $2,473 +$1,528 +62%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $5,047 +$176 +4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $1,003 +$1,324 +132%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $4,276 −$1,133 -26%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 29 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $355 before 2026?? Dec 02 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 01 $5,076 −$3,007 -59%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Nov 18 $1,639 +$197 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 08 $1,450 −$800 -55%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Nov 08 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Nov 08 $138 +$136 +99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November? Nov 06 $1,550 −$450 -29%
Suns vs. Warriors Nov 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November? Nov 05 $2,483 +$1,264 +51%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Nov 01 $10 +$23 +220%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Nov 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 31? Nov 01 $1,782 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 31? Nov 01 $106 +$11 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 01 $2,792 +$6 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 27-November 2? Oct 31 $13 +$7 +53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 31? Oct 31 $876 +$114 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 30 $10,716 +$316 +3%
Pacers vs. Mavericks Oct 30 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 30 $84 +$14 +17%
Thunder vs. Mavericks Oct 29 $243 +$2 +1%
Raptors vs. Spurs Oct 29 $679 +$21 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 27-November 2? Oct 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bulls vs. Magic Oct 26 $197 +$2 +1%
Pacers vs. Grizzlies Oct 26 $2,442 +$58 +2%
Suns vs. Nuggets Oct 26 $27 −$9 -33%
Hornets vs. 76ers Oct 26 $1 +$1 +115%
Thunder vs. Hawks Oct 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Nets Oct 25 $17 −$12 -69%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Oct 24 $9 +$7 +79%
Thunder vs. Pacers Oct 24 $4 +$5 +117%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Oct 24 $8 +$12 +150%
Warriors vs. Lakers Oct 22 $11 +$8 +72%
Spread: Lakers (-2.5) Oct 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 6-12? Oct 15 $1,137 +$2 +0%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? Oct 15 $1,260 +$140 +11%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31? Oct 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? Oct 15 $159 −$159 -100%
Hornets vs. Mavericks Oct 15 $450 −$450 -100%
Thunder vs. Pacers Oct 12 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 10? Oct 10 $1,798 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 99¢ $4,752 41m
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 44m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,015 1h
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 28¢ $0 14h
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 28¢ $22 14h
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 28¢ $140 14h
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 28¢ $140 14h
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 28¢ $142 14h
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 28¢ $56 14h
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 28¢ $56 14h
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 28¢ $142 14h
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 28¢ $56 14h
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 28¢ $56 14h
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 28¢ $56 14h
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 28¢ $142 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $3,507 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $26 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $36 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $457 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $390 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,951 22h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 23h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 23h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 20¢ $182 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,334.05 · official $1,334.05 (match) · 838 history records