Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:52:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x372c…67c6
world · 87 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$95 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$96 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized+$96
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses35 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage479d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 2 History 85 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days+$18
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 58¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $247 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $247 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $536 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $251 −$4 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $281 −$5 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $489 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $29 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $137 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $659 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $755 −$2 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $459 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $131 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $99 +$19 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $862 +$12 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $133 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $729 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $24 −$15 -63%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $405 +$3 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $18 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $159 +$27 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $3 +$74 +2721%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $51 −$12 -24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $978 +$4 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $1,958 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 12 $1,079 −$8 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 20 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 19 $13 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 19 $9 $0 -1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Aug 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $3 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? Aug 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? Aug 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $7 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 60% +$97
other 34% −$8
finance 4% +$3
politics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $11 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $99 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $145 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $148 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $99 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $152 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $54 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $41 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $72 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $112 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $63 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $15 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $146 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $56 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $30 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $247 46h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $38 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $172 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $37 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $251 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $276 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $281 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $86 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $111 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $184 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $29 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $29 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $137 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 25 +77.8% +60.8% 36% 12% -8.6%
≤90d 28 +69.4% +53.3% 36% 11% -8.9%
all 85 +23.7% +11.9% 41% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.9% 5% -8.9%
10% +1.2% 2% -17.6%
15% -8.6% 2% -25.6%
20% -17.5% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.86 · official $9.75 (match) · 367 history records