Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
37 0x372e…4cc7 finance 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$156 (+3%) realized +$92 · open +$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate55%24W / 20L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$782now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$19
14 days+$83
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 93% −$94
other 6% +$287
tech 1% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -44.3% -49.6% 47% 21% -10.1%
≤30d 44 -22.9% -30.3% 55% 25% -8.1%
≤90d 44 -22.9% -30.3% 55% 25% -8.1%
all 44 -22.9% -30.3% 55% 25% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 25% -8.1%
10% -37.0% 14% -16.9%
15% -43.0% 9% -24.9%
20% -48.6% 7% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$29 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$782
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses24 / 20
Open positions6
Markets (closed)44 / 50
History coverage19d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Down 35¢ 97¢ $204 $569 +$366 (+179%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $83 $84 +$1 (+1%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? Yes 62¢ 10¢ $364 $62 −$302 (-83%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 17? No 75¢ 72¢ $51 $49 −$2 (-4%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Up 21¢ 25¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+19%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 17? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $630 +$32 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? Jun 15 $27 −$26 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $78 +$22 +29%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? Jun 12 $67 +$3 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $47 −$44 -94%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $57 −$52 -92%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $122 −$64 -52%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 11? Jun 11 $388 +$82 +21%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 11? Jun 11 $361 +$54 +15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? Jun 10 $53 +$2 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 10? Jun 10 $57 +$7 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 10 $475 +$32 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $436 +$4 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $12 +$51 +415%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 9? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 9? Jun 10 $56 −$56 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 9? Jun 09 $156 +$11 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 9? Jun 09 $371 +$7 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $298 +$61 +20%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 9? Jun 09 $58 +$4 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 9? Jun 09 $92 +$8 +9%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $80 −$78 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $62 −$62 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $502 +$65 +13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 8? Jun 08 $29 +$3 +9%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 8? Jun 08 $24 +$1 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 8? Jun 08 $206 +$84 +41%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 3? Jun 06 $16 −$13 -83%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 3? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on June 4? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 06 $94 −$91 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 5? Jun 05 $113 +$100 +89%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on June 4? Jun 04 $192 +$8 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $50 +$13 +25%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 3? Jun 03 $97 +$3 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 1? Jun 01 $4 +$2 +61%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $8 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 46¢ $37 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $40 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $83 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 32¢ $21 5h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 65¢ $42 5h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 33¢ $31 5h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 63¢ $58 5h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 5h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 37¢ $2 5h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 60¢ $17 5h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 37¢ $11 5h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 5h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 38¢ $2 5h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 63¢ $16 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 34¢ $9 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 34¢ $9 10h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 63¢ $16 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 34¢ $9 10h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 63¢ $16 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 34¢ $5 10h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 34¢ $9 10h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 63¢ $16 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 32¢ $8 11h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 65¢ $16 11h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 32¢ $8 11h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 65¢ $16 11h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 31¢ $8 11h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY Yes 66¢ $17 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $782.24 · official $782.24 (match) · 301 history records