Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
37 0x372e…4453 sports 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$95,652 (+815%) realized +$94,825 · open +$827
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%23W / 312L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day42.8pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 79d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$686
sports 23% +$813
other 4% −$379
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-80.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 323 -83.1% -84.7% 5% 5% -93.7%
≤30d 324 -83.1% -84.7% 5% 5% -93.7%
≤90d 335 -78.6% -80.6% 7% 7% -79.8%
all 335 -78.6% -80.6% 7% 7% -79.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -80.6% 7% -79.8%
10% ← realistic here -82.5% 6% -81.7%
15% -84.2% 6% -83.5%
20% -85.7% 6% -85.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -57% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
33.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$149 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$1,230
Realized+$94,825
Unrealized+$827
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses23 / 312
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions9
Markets (closed)335 / 86
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$136
Trades / day42.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 18¢ 100¢ $90 $500 +$410 (+455%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 31¢ 100¢ $93 $300 +$207 (+222%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Over 2¢ 19¢ $19 $190 +$171 (+903%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 100¢ $50 $100 +$50 (+100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Over 4¢ 44¢ $9 $91 +$82 (+872%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Over 0¢ 2¢ $6 $38 +$32 (+533%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Over 1¢ 6¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+975%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 21¢ 14¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-33%)
Croatia leading at halftime? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 310 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $273 −$286 -105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$80 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $833 −$836 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2,151 −$2,213 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $212 −$414 -195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$75 -149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $80 −$110 -137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $196 −$230 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $207 −$264 -127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1,166 −$1,176 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $143 −$339 -238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $261 −$282 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $284 −$276 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $97 −$125 -129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $125 −$127 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $108 −$115 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $90 −$93 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $111 −$119 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $126 −$164 -131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $139 −$149 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $202 −$252 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $163 −$191 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $86 −$131 -151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $292 −$315 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$120 -280%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $166 −$170 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $221 −$221 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $393 −$330 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $109 −$124 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $116 −$156 -135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $162 −$206 -127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $9 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $77 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $7 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $0 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $40 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $85 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $90 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 0¢ $6 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $14 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $30 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 11¢ $20 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $4 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $19 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,229.73 · official $1,229.69 (match) · 3500 history records