Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
37 0x3730…af98 world 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$608 (+10%) realized +$546 · open +$62
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate67%40W / 20L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,463now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$188
14 days+$188
30 days+$403
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$553
other 14% −$30
politics 7% +$18
crypto 7% +$50
sports 3% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +41.2% +27.7% 67% 44% +21.5%
≤30d 20 +29.0% +16.7% 65% 50% +14.8%
≤90d 60 +12.3% +1.6% 67% 43% +2.3%
all 60 +12.3% +1.6% 67% 43% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 43% +2.3%
10% -8.1% 28% -7.5%
15% -17.0% 25% -16.4%
20% -25.2% 12% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$18 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1,463
Realized+$546
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses40 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)60 / 69
History coverage85d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 85¢ $292 $269 −$23 (-8%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 88¢ $175 $219 +$44 (+25%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 94¢ 99¢ $143 $152 +$8 (+6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 78¢ 100¢ $56 $72 +$16 (+28%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $56 $63 +$7 (+13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 85¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $25 $28 +$2 (+9%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $171 −$5 -3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $39 +$69 +180%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $171 +$42 +25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $20 +$83 +413%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $195 +$67 +34%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $84 +$5 +5%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $48 −$3 -5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $180 +$33 +18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $220 +$18 +8%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $15 +$2 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $52 +$22 +43%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $144 +$125 +87%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $123 +$45 +37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 01 $8 +$3 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $111 −$30 -27%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $50 $0 -1%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 18 $3 $0 +4%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 18 $7 +$1 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 18 $68 +$20 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 18 $41 −$21 -51%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 13 $22 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 13 $32 +$13 +41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $103 −$9 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 04 $177 $0 -0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 04 $200 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? May 02 $67 +$14 +20%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? May 02 $104 +$38 +36%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 02 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? May 02 $13 −$10 -78%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? May 02 $24 −$24 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? May 02 $35 −$22 -62%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? May 02 $98 +$45 +46%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? May 02 $29 −$29 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? May 02 $111 −$35 -31%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? May 02 $459 +$89 +19%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 7? May 02 $26 −$26 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $195 −$59 -30%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 02 $29 +$57 +199%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? May 02 $47 +$4 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? May 02 $144 +$15 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 02 $155 +$11 +7%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? May 02 $1 $0 +14%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? May 02 $61 +$28 +45%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 30 $79 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 97¢ $101 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $20 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $20 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 84¢ $45 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $17 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 32¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $57 25h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 33h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $13 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $27 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $32 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $13 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $48 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $72 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $39 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $28 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No $4 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No $0 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 6d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,463.48 · official $1,463.48 (match) · 566 history records