Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:15:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3731…a318 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$99 (-2%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate20%6W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$130
world 19% +$46
crypto 18% −$5
politics 17% −$3
other 7% $0
culture 6% −$1
tech 6% −$1
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -16.7% -24.6% 25% 25% -25.8%
all 30 -13.7% -22.0% 20% 3% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 3% -11.3%
10% -29.4% 3% -19.8%
15% -36.2% 0% -27.6%
20% -42.5% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses6 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage234d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 11 $128 −$125 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? May 06 $98 +$32 +33%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $284 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Mar 02 $293 +$4 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 28 $289 +$4 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 26 $274 +$6 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 21 $30 $0 -1%
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jan 19 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $3 −$1 -29%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 14 $276 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 11 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $278 −$1 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 30 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 26 $279 +$1 +0%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Dec 23 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 19 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $17 −$1 -6%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 10 $287 +$1 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 05 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 03 $3 −$1 -29%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 01 $286 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 25 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 21 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 19 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 16 $291 −$2 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Nov 13 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $30 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 24¢ $128 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $98 66d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 82d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 84d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $284 89d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $284 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 5? BUY No 1¢ $3 107d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $293 132d
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $289 145d
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $274 148d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $29 150d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $30 151d
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 99¢ $277 152d
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 99¢ $278 153d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 155d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 156d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $276 157d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $276 158d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 5¢ $21 160d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 162d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $277 163d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $278 163d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 172d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 173d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $279 176d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $279 178d
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 179d
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 181d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $285 182d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.22 · official $38.22 (match) · 70 history records