Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3735…1525 other 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (130 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%41W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day130.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$166
sports 26% −$294
crypto 10% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (130 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -11.0% -19.5% 61% 48% -12.3%
≤30d 67 -11.0% -19.5% 61% 48% -12.3%
≤90d 67 -11.0% -19.5% 61% 48% -12.3%
all 67 -11.0% -19.5% 61% 48% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 48% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 30% -20.7%
15% -34.3% 19% -28.3%
20% -40.7% 10% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$23 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses41 / 26
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)67 / 73
History coverage3d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day130.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? No 61¢ 80¢ $61 $79 +$19 (+31%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? No 73¢ 78¢ $73 $78 +$4 (+6%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 57¢ 44¢ $58 $45 −$13 (-23%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $678 +$22 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $648 +$152 +24%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $427 −$239 -56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Jun 29 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? Jun 29 $91 −$2 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $308 +$46 +15%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $28 −$27 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $54 +$21 +38%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 28 $8 +$2 +18%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 28 $4 +$1 +41%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $63 +$12 +20%
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $2 +$4 +233%
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $35 −$31 -90%
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $85 +$10 +12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $87 +$8 +9%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 28 $9 +$1 +13%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 28 $4 +$1 +23%
Jordan to win the second half? Jun 28 $5 $0 +1%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 28 $1 +$4 +354%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 28 $51 +$2 +5%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $37 +$18 +49%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Second half draw? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw? Jun 28 $8 +$2 +24%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $3 +$2 +70%
Uzbekistan to win the second half? Jun 28 $9 +$1 +13%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $93 +$35 +38%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $92 +$28 +30%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $34 +$12 +34%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 28 $4 +$1 +31%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 28 $3 +$2 +50%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 28 $4 +$1 +20%
Colombia to win the second half? Jun 28 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $23 +$22 +100%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $36 −$36 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $72 −$72 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Second half draw? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
DR Congo to win the second half? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $4 +$1 +16%
Ghana to win the second half? Jun 27 $9 +$1 +17%
Croatia to win the second half? Jun 27 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $17 +$9 +51%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $23 +$2 +7%
Panama to win the second half? Jun 27 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL No 45¢ $44 7m
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 48¢ $19 10m
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 48¢ $11 10m
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 48¢ $18 10m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 63¢ $62 53m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 62¢ $38 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 62¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 62¢ $16 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 62¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 62¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 66¢ $67 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 72¢ $73 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 61¢ $61 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $69 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 74¢ $75 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 59¢ $59 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $42 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 58¢ $57 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 58¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $70 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 72¢ $73 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 59¢ $59 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $74 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 96¢ $96 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.98 · official $300.98 (match) · 486 history records