Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3735…5a5b crypto 1257 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,915 (-29%) realized −$3,915 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate65%818W / 439L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day88.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,180
other 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 327 -0.7% -10.1% 75% 55% -11.2%
≤30d 1257 -4.9% -14.0% 65% 57% -17.5%
≤90d 1257 -4.9% -14.0% 65% 57% -17.5%
all 1257 -4.9% -14.0% 65% 57% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 57% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 42% -25.4%
15% -29.7% 28% -32.6%
20% -36.6% 18% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,915
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses818 / 439
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1257 / 1257
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day88.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1257 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$17 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $19 +$12 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $19 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$17 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $35 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $24 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records