Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3736…243f crypto 1203 markets active 2d ago coverage 698d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$873 (-8%) realized −$873 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%617W / 586L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$66
14 days−$71
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$703
politics 5% −$52
world 4% +$34
other 2% −$123
economics 0% +$4
sports 0% +$14
tech 0% −$20
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -13.7% -21.9% 53% 53% -22.7%
≤30d 199 -6.4% -15.3% 65% 65% -19.1%
≤90d 322 -8.4% -17.1% 64% 63% -19.1%
all 1203 -7.2% -16.0% 51% 46% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 46% -16.8%
10% -24.1% 37% -24.8%
15% -31.4% 27% -32.0%
20% -38.1% 22% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

698d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$873
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses617 / 586
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1203 / 1203
History coverage698d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1203 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$7 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$7 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3305 history records