Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3739…08a3 crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-10%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%35W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day34.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$29
other 5% −$1
sports 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -16.0% -24.0% 53% 47% +1.0%
≤30d 66 -16.0% -24.0% 53% 47% +1.0%
≤90d 66 -16.0% -24.0% 53% 47% +1.0%
all 66 -16.0% -24.0% 53% 47% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.0% 47% +1.0%
10% ← realistic here -31.3% 35% -8.7%
15% -37.9% 20% -17.5%
20% -44.0% 6% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses35 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$50 +416%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$2 +38%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 12h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 12h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $3 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.89 · official $3.89 (match) · 144 history records