Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:54:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x373a…a134 other 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate86%81W / 13L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% +$45
sports 25% −$24
world 17% −$196
crypto 13% +$13
other 7% +$4
finance 1% $0
tech 1% +$2
economics 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 25% -9.2%
≤90d 21 -8.0% -16.8% 71% 10% -10.6%
all 93 -2.9% -12.2% 86% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 4% -10.2%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$28 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses81 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage247d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $220 $0 +0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $200 +$2 +1%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 07 $1 $0 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Jun 07 $210 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? May 23 $1 $0 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 23 $199 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 15 $210 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 13 $106 $0 +0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $109 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 06 $199 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 23 $210 $0 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual Apr 14 $2,198 +$2 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 13 $2,196 +$2 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $3,554 +$46 +1%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $2,100 $0 +0%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 11 $2,100 $0 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 11 $720 +$21 +3%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 10 $80 −$80 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 10 $2,050 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $108 −$1 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 22 $1 $0 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 22 $108 +$12 +11%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $1 $0 +7%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 17 $169 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $150 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 11 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 3? Mar 06 $150 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Mar 03 $2 $0 +1%
Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 03 $163 $0 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 28 $100 +$14 +14%
Flying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Feb 25 $1 $0 +5%
Flying Tulip FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 25 $2 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 25 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 17? Feb 21 $103 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 15? Feb 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 12? Feb 15 $148 $0 +0%
Will BP (BP) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 12 $154 $0 +0%
Tria FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 10 $1 $0 +0%
Tria FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 10 $5 $0 +0%
Tria FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 10 $142 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 04 $5 $0 +6%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Feb 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 04 $5 $0 -1%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 2? Feb 04 $130 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $220 9d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 99¢ $200 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $210 34d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 89¢ $1 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 41d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? BUY Down 90¢ $1 41d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $210 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 48d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 48d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 98¢ $7 50d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 98¢ $41 50d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 98¢ $41 50d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 98¢ $21 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $199 57d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 63d
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $210 72d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual BUY JD Gaming 100¢ $2,198 73d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $2,198 73d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $1,697 73d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $218 73d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $281 73d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 77¢ $7 74d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 77¢ $1,918 74d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,900 74d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 79¢ $158 74d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 79¢ $1,244 74d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 79¢ $117 74d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 79¢ $12 74d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 79¢ $118 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.80 · official $99.80 (match) · 247 history records