Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:10:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

37 0x373d…bab9 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$52 (+2%) realized +$52 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate61%11W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$158per market

Trades / day47.0pace

Kalshi-fit94%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)-25.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-17.4%	-25.3%	61%	39%	-7.9%
≤30d	18	-17.4%	-25.3%	61%	39%	-7.9%
≤90d	18	-17.4%	-25.3%	61%	39%	-7.9%
all	18	-17.4%	-25.3%	61%	39%	-7.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover47.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-25.3%	39%	-7.9%
10% ← realistic here	-32.4%	33%	-16.7%
15%	-39.0%	22%	-24.7%
20%	-44.9%	11%	-32.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 57% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

36% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -12% → late -22% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$48 vs −$68 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.11 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$52

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)61%

Wins / losses11 / 7

Open positions0

Markets (closed)18 / 18

History coverage1d

Avg bet$158

Trades / day47.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 18 Trades

no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 22	$470	+$205	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 22	$461	+$17	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 22	$402	+$35	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 22	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 22	$201	−$200	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Jun 22	$172	+$29	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 22	$113	+$26	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Jun 22	$103	−$103	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Jun 22	$200	+$4	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Jun 22	$102	−$100	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 22	$102	+$51	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Jun 22	$52	−$13	-24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 22	$26	−$25	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Jun 22	$52	−$25	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 22	$127	+$42	+33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Jun 22	$26	+$21	+83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Jun 22	$15	$0	+1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$211	+$96	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$10	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$25	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$25	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$103	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$103	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$102	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$102	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$10	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$25	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$25	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$100	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$100	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$100	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$100	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$101	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$101	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$101	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$101	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$11	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$101	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$101	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$102	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records