Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x373f…8e9e
other · 51 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$101 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$101 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses5 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage587d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%
Chart Positions 2 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $54 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 08 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-03-14? Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-15? Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Kings vs. Islanders Apr 06 $67 −$67 -100%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 15 $19 $0 +0%
Spread: Utah (-1.5) Mar 13 $42 +$33 +79%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Mar 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 05 $72 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Feb 09 $72 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 20 $13,545 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 10 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 17 $45 −$1 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $26 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $267 −$1 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 03 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $1,005 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 80% −$13
politics 13% −$5
other 5% −$43
sports 1% −$40
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 38m
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $12 15d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 32¢ $5 22d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 23d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 24d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 24d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 32d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -7.3% -16.1% 7% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 34 -11.9% -20.3% 6% 0% -19.0%
all 49 -7.1% -16.0% 10% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 2% -10.1%
10% -24.0% 2% -18.7%
15% -31.4% 2% -26.5%
20% -38.1% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.98 · official $21.98 (match) · 223 history records