Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:12:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3740…a935 sports 963 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,038 (-1%) realized −$2,183 · open +$145
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate78%749W / 211L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$924est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,678now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,387
7 days−$7,059
14 days−$4,581
30 days−$2,346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$1,686
other 41% −$4,401
crypto 1% −$7
world 0% +$55
weather 0% −$18
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -18.0% -25.8% 58% 47% -19.9%
≤30d 326 -0.4% -9.9% 72% 58% -11.2%
≤90d 591 +0.1% -9.4% 77% 49% -10.9%
all 960 -1.6% -11.0% 78% 41% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 41% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 24% -19.5%
15% -27.3% 14% -27.2%
20% -34.4% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$186 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$1,678
Realized−$2,183
Unrealized+$145
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses749 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$924
Open positions3
Markets (closed)960 / 963
History coverage133d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 960 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Under 75¢ 100¢ $823 $1,099 +$277 (+34%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Under 87¢ 100¢ $414 $478 +$64 (+15%)
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 100¢ $59 $100 +$41 (+69%)
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,425 +$75 +5%
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $157 +$42 +26%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $769 +$305 +40%
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $138 −$131 -95%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir end in a draw? Jun 18 $631 −$631 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $107 +$43 +40%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $495 −$389 -79%
Will RS Berkane vs. OC Safi end in a draw? Jun 18 $162 +$38 +23%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $932 +$158 +17%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $239 +$11 +5%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $852 +$72 +8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $149 −$139 -94%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $453 −$198 -44%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $950 +$40 +4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $491 +$116 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $991 +$38 +4%
RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida end in a draw? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $56 +$44 +79%
Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $34 +$16 +46%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $85 +$15 +17%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $96 +$12 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $68 +$24 +36%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $619 −$619 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $84 +$26 +32%
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $186 +$18 +10%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $503 −$484 -96%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $402 +$98 +24%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $597 +$403 +67%
Will Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $363 −$363 -100%
Will Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? Jun 16 $429 +$71 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $680 +$319 +47%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $176 +$123 +70%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $231 −$208 -90%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $112 +$38 +34%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $183 −$183 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,195 −$1,195 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $161 +$138 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $670 +$329 +49%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $240 +$66 +27%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,691 −$2,691 -100%
Will Botafogo FC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC end in a draw? Jun 15 $378 −$378 -100%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $573 −$573 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $460 −$460 -100%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,094 −$1,094 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $162 +$18 +11%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe end in a draw? Jun 15 $354 +$166 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 87¢ $416 41m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 75¢ $829 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $67 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $59 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $71 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $60 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $405 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $9 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $475 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $75 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $29 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $11 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $43 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $110 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $107 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,677.60 · official $1,677.60 (match) · 3273 history records