Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3743…cf0e crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$65 (+7%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%29W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day55.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$60
other 6% +$2
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -8.5% -17.2% 59% 51% -15.5%
≤30d 49 -8.5% -17.2% 59% 51% -15.5%
≤90d 49 -8.5% -17.2% 59% 51% -15.5%
all 49 -8.5% -17.2% 59% 51% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 51% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 37% -23.6%
15% -32.4% 27% -31.0%
20% -39.0% 20% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses29 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage2d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day55.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $46 −$41 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$15 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $36 −$23 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $47 −$11 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$43 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$32 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$27 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $61 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$18 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$16 -80%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $39 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $19 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $63 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $68 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.29 · official $1.29 (match) · 114 history records