Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
37 0x3743…7bc1 sports 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$108 (+3%) realized +$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%43W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$64
14 days−$55
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$69
other 42% +$25
world 8% +$88
crypto 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -1.8% -11.1% 54% 54% -7.3%
≤30d 83 -9.6% -18.3% 52% 52% -7.4%
≤90d 83 -9.6% -18.3% 52% 52% -7.4%
all 83 -9.6% -18.3% 52% 52% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 52% -7.4%
10% -26.1% 46% -16.3%
15% -33.2% 29% -24.4%
20% -39.8% 22% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$30 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses43 / 40
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage28d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 46¢ 46¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 11¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 +$30 +194%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $161 −$45 -28%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $40 +$26 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $15 +$11 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $10 +$33 +325%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $56 −$55 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$12 -59%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $166 +$94 +56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$55 +54%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$17 +33%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$7 +28%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$12 +23%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$7 +15%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$29 +142%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $25 +$12 +47%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 +$13 +26%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +54%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +30%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$14 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$2 -12%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$44 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $71 +$34 +48%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$14 +93%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 −$7 -33%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$14 -54%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $40 +$16 +40%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 +$16 +32%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $94 +$24 +26%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $86 −$85 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$130 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $25 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $71 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 13h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 62¢ $45 13h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $5 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 22¢ $6 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $10 16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 17¢ $10 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $56 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 72¢ $60 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 71¢ $61 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 60¢ $51 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $67 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $31 29h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $20 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 93¢ $175 34h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 58¢ $15 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $71 37h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 6¢ $5 37h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 23¢ $10 37h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 56¢ $51 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $30 38h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $8 39h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $20 41h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $260 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.50 · official $30.50 (match) · 159 history records