Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:05:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
37 0x3749…05c8 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% $0
tech 25% −$1
crypto 19% $0
world 8% $0
finance 8% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 2% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 11 -7.8% -16.6% 64% 0% -9.7%
all 15 -5.7% -14.6% 73% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage146d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Jun 26 $49 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $46 −$1 -3%
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Jun 05 $23 +$1 +3%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 22 $22 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 19 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bulls vs. Thunder Apr 29 $2 $0 +5%
Jazz vs. Nuggets Apr 29 $3 $0 +5%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 27 $10 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 06 $1 $0 +0%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Feb 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 31? Feb 06 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $46 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $49 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $23 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $23 21d
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? SELL Yes 96¢ $24 21d
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? BUY Yes 93¢ $23 35d
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? BUY Yes 98¢ $22 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 97¢ $22 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 96¢ $22 40d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 86¢ $22 40d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 89¢ $23 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 94¢ $23 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 94¢ $23 44d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 57d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 57d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No $1 57d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 57d
Jazz vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 95¢ $3 90d
Bulls vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 95¢ $2 90d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $10 138d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 146d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 146d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.62 · official $44.62 (match) · 36 history records