Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:25:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
37 0x374a…a2a2 crypto 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+2%) realized +$61 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%36W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$46
other 36% −$6
politics 24% +$48
economics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +61.4% +46.0% 100% 100% +46.0%
≤30d 7 +45.5% +31.6% 71% 71% +14.3%
≤90d 65 -6.4% -15.4% 55% 49% -6.4%
all 65 -6.4% -15.4% 55% 49% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 49% -6.4%
10% -23.5% 43% -15.3%
15% -30.8% 32% -23.5%
20% -37.6% 26% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses36 / 29
Open positions8
Markets (closed)65 / 74
History coverage72d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 46¢ 32¢ $100 $70 −$30 (-30%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+42%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 36¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Jun 09 $28 −$1 -3%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Jun 09 $102 +$40 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 16 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 16 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 14 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 08 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 08 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele May 08 $30 +$6 +18%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 08 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 28 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 26 $3 +$4 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 26 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 22 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 22 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 22 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 21 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 21 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elec Apr 21 $20 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 21 $9 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 21 $10 +$28 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 16 $1 +$1 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY No 46¢ $102 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 8d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 39¢ $25 9d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL Yes 36¢ $28 13d
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? SELL Yes 84¢ $141 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 37d
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $6 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.07 · official $125.07 (match) · 191 history records