Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x374a…c231 other 346 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized +$10 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate19%84W / 353L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day47.3pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$286
7 days−$289
14 days−$284
30 days−$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$16
other 48% −$11
culture 1% −$17
politics 1% −$1
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 -51.2% -55.8% 7% 6% -75.0%
≤30d 266 -13.8% -22.0% 16% 13% -38.5%
≤90d 437 -6.6% -15.5% 19% 16% -28.9%
all 437 -6.6% -15.5% 19% 16% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 16% -28.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 14% -35.7%
15% -31.0% 12% -41.9%
20% -37.7% 11% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$431
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses84 / 353
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions97
Markets (closed)437 / 346
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day47.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 97 History 437 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $139 $131 −$9 (-6%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $24 $25 +$2 (+8%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+12%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+26%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+29%)
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $12 $14 +$1 (+11%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next? Yes 0¢ 79¢ $0 $13 +$13 (+39400%)
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 47¢ 61¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+30%)
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-15%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 76¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-17%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+150%)
Will England be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? No 60¢ 85¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+42%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $6 +$2 (+72%)
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 92¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Will Mauricio Ruffy be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 6¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+2975%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-45%)
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+55%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 328 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 17 $0 $0 +174%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 men's singles tournament at the Miam Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Germany win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sri Lanka win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will USA win Pool B at the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Rockets vs. Bulls Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +150%
Will MOUZ win PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Pr Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -104%
Will Canada win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Jun 17 $8 −$6 -75%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Pri Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 Six Nations championship? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +395%
Will Panama win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 17 $0 $0 +47%
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Jun 17 $10 −$20 -200%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 10? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -63%
Set Handicap: Siniakova (-1.5) vs Osorio (+1.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will V.J. Edgecombe win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -172%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-22? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sweden be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donovan Clingan lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA s Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rudy Gobert win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
CA Tucumán vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the Pacific Division? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Korea win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 Six Nations championship? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Switzerland win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Stuttgart win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win the LEC 2026 Versus? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will William Poromaa (SWE) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
NCAA Tournament: No. 16 seed to pull off an upset? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -110%
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mika Vermuelen (AUT) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Buse vs. Dzumhur: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Normal Powell win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -231%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 12h
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 14h
Will Team Secret Whales win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Team Liquid win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Team Secret Whales win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Team Liquid win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Team Liquid win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Team Secret Whales win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Team Liquid win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Team Liquid win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Team Liquid win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Team Liquid win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Team Liquid win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Team Liquid win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Team Liquid win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Team Liquid win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Team Liquid win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Team Liquid win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Team Secret Whales win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Team Liquid win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $430.60 · official $430.29 (match) · 3500 history records