Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

37 0x3752…2f08 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,346 (-19%) realized −$1,493 · open +$147

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip

Net edge-57%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate33%4W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$448per market

Trades / day67.5pace

Fees−$89est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1,271now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-49.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-44.0%	-49.3%	33%	25%	-33.7%
≤30d	12	-44.0%	-49.3%	33%	25%	-33.7%
≤90d	12	-44.0%	-49.3%	33%	25%	-33.7%
all	12	-44.0%	-49.3%	33%	25%	-33.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover67.5 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-49.3%	25%	-33.7%
10% ← realistic here	-54.2%	17%	-40.0%
15%	-58.6%	17%	-45.8%
20%	-62.7%	17%	-51.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 73% · top 2 87% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -44% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -81% → late -7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$230 vs −$312 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.37 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,271

Realized−$1,493

Unrealized+$147

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses4 / 8

Est. fees paid−$89

Open positions4

Markets (closed)12 / 16

History coverage1d

Avg bet$448

Trades / day67.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	Dplus KIA Challengers	46¢	100¢	$267	$580	+$313 (+117%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Vici Gaming	45¢	34¢	$491	$379	−$112 (-23%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Vici Gaming	96¢	100¢	$300	$312	+$12 (+4%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner	T1 Academy	16¢	0¢	$66	$0	−$66 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner	Jun 18	$222	+$130	+59%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner	Jun 18	$1,543	−$160	-10%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner	Jun 18	$457	−$363	-80%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 17	$145	−$145	-100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner	Jun 17	$628	+$672	+107%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner	Jun 17	$303	+$13	+4%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo	Jun 17	$260	−$255	-98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner	Jun 17	$206	−$206	-100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner	Jun 17	$846	+$104	+12%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner	Jun 17	$480	−$480	-100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner	Jun 17	$450	−$450	-100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner	Jun 17	$433	−$433	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Vici Gaming	37¢	$92	53m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Vici Gaming	47¢	$32	58m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Vici Gaming	47¢	$3	58m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Vici Gaming	47¢	$128	58m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Vici Gaming	47¢	$7	58m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Vici Gaming	47¢	$1	58m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Vici Gaming	47¢	$57	58m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Vici Gaming	47¢	$14	58m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Vici Gaming	47¢	$1	58m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Vici Gaming	47¢	$1	58m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Vici Gaming	47¢	$133	58m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Vici Gaming	47¢	$25	58m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Vici Gaming	47¢	$1	58m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Vici Gaming	47¢	$36	58m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Vici Gaming	47¢	$5	58m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Yakult Brothers	29¢	$28	1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BUY Vici Gaming	96¢	$300	1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	BUY Dplus KIA Challengers	46¢	$271	3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	13¢	$18	3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	13¢	$1	3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	13¢	$1	3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	17¢	$4	3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	17¢	$6	3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	17¢	$37	3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team Resilience	93¢	$200	4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team Resilience	88¢	$100	4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team Resilience	85¢	$301	4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team Resilience	58¢	$12	4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team Resilience	58¢	$25	4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team Resilience	58¢	$58	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,271.37 · official $1,271.48 (match) · 94 history records