Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:06:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x3754…0b86
crypto · 404 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$103 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$122 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses248 / 154
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)402 / 404
History coverage113d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 402 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -51%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 75% −$51
sports 23% −$75
other 1% +$5
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -11.5% -19.9% 60% 47% -15.1%
≤30d 102 -11.5% -19.9% 60% 47% -15.1%
≤90d 235 -9.5% -18.1% 60% 49% -19.0%
all 402 -7.5% -16.3% 62% 51% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 51% -19.2%
10% -24.4% 35% -27.0%
15% -31.7% 19% -34.0%
20% -38.4% 13% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.03 · official $4.03 (match) · 975 history records