Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:12:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x3758…5c70 other 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$88 (+6%) realized +$86 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate63%108W / 64L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$80
14 days+$132
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$93
crypto 12% −$22
sports 7% +$15
weather 0% −$1
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +34.7% +21.9% 90% 60% -1.2%
≤30d 40 +29.4% +17.0% 62% 45% -0.0%
≤90d 172 +1.7% -8.0% 63% 41% -4.5%
all 172 +1.7% -8.0% 63% 41% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 41% -4.5%
10% -16.8% 20% -13.6%
15% -24.8% 15% -22.0%
20% -32.2% 11% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses108 / 64
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 175
History coverage80d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 40¢ 48¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $293 +$16 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $26 +$37 +142%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $42 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $258 −$18 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $110 +$13 +12%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $63 +$3 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +36%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $57 +$8 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $19 +$18 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $26 +$13 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $22 +$4 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $17 +$19 +111%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $27 −$24 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$6 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$13 +374%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +227%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$16 +168%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $12 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $23 −$8 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $9 −$8 -87%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $4 −$2 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? May 31 $3 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? May 30 $3 $0 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $2 +$5 +196%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $0 $0 +58%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $4 −$4 -93%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7AM ET May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1 +$4 +334%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6AM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +49%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Cameroon vs Mali May 29 $0 $0 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $3 $0 +5%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Derbyshire May 27 $3 $0 +2%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 21 to May 23, 2026? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 18 $2 $0 -9%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $9 +$1 +15%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $9 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $107 23m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $108 43m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 58m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $27 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $61 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $18 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $118 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $62 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 4h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $8 4h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $75 22h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $42 24h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $43 26h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 27h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 27h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $18 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $61 29h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $71 47h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 47h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $20 47h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $58 47h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $80 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $23 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $23 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.12 · official $12.12 (match) · 712 history records