Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x375a…3e7e other 46 markets active 3h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$31 (-3%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%11W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$9
other 40% −$12
sports 5% −$9
politics 4% $0
economics 4% −$2
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.9% -10.3% 33% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 23 -1.1% -10.5% 26% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 23 -1.1% -10.5% 26% 0% -10.7%
all 46 -4.0% -13.1% 24% 2% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 2% -11.9%
10% -21.4% 2% -20.3%
15% -29.0% 0% -28.0%
20% -36.0% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses11 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage260d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $27 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $55 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $53 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $26 +$1 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $60 −$9 -15%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $27 $0 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $26 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $4 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $36 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $43 $0 -1%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 25 $16 −$11 -68%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Jan 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $11 $0 +0%
Washington vs. UCLA Nov 24 $8 +$2 +28%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $87 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $17 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 10 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 10 $2 $0 -1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 09 $1 $0 -10%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 09 $24 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $27 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $5 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $25 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $30 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $10 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $18 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $26 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $0 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $26 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $26 41h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $17 45h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $8 45h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $25 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $26 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $26 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $14 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $12 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $18 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $8 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $26 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 88¢ $26 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $26 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records