Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x375a…94ba crypto 26 markets active 3d ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$301 (+0%) realized +$266 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%24W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$3,239per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$20
14 days+$61
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 19 +0.2% -9.3% 95% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 25 +0.4% -9.2% 96% 0% -9.2%
all 25 +0.4% -9.2% 96% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$5,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$0 · ×24.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×596.88 per $1 lost it wins $596.88
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$5,135
Realized+$266
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses24 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage54d
Avg bet$3,239
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $5,100 $5,135 +$35 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5,000 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $5,050 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $5,090 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5,000 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5,000 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5,072 +$9 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $5,032 +$22 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5,000 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5,001 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5,001 +$9 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $3,697 +$18 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1,310 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,309 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,307 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,306 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,300 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $2,132 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $2,132 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $2,096 +$36 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? May 23 $2,084 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $2,082 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $2,052 +$31 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10? May 11 $2,032 +$19 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $2,031 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 01 $1,999 +$32 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $5,105 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $5,000 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5,050 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5,090 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5,000 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5,000 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5,072 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $5,032 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $5,000 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $5,001 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,000 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,000 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $1,310 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,309 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $1,307 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,306 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $1,300 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $1,564 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 1-7? BUY No 99¢ $2,134 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $2,132 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? SELL No 100¢ $2,132 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $2,132 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $2,096 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? SELL No 100¢ $2,096 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? BUY No 99¢ $2,084 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $2,082 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? BUY No 98¢ $2,052 41d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10? BUY No 99¢ $2,032 48d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 April 27-May 3? BUY No 100¢ $2,031 53d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $1,999 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,135.33 · official $5,135.33 (match) · 53 history records