Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x375a…8f3b other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$14 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$1
sports 39% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -42.1% -47.6% 40% 40% -32.2%
≤30d 5 -42.1% -47.6% 40% 40% -32.2%
≤90d 5 -42.1% -47.6% 40% 40% -32.2%
all 5 -42.1% -47.6% 40% 40% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.6% 40% -32.2%
10% ← realistic here -52.6% 40% -38.7%
15% -57.2% 0% -44.6%
20% -61.4% 0% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$24 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$456
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions9
Markets (closed)5 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $149 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 94¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 97¢ 93¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Senegal be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $196 −$59 -30%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $66 +$18 +27%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $21 +$6 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 7¢ $10 53m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 8¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $33 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $69 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 45¢ $30 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 40¢ $31 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 34¢ $18 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 52¢ $58 2h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $12 2h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 48¢ $11 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 68¢ $83 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 44¢ $51 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 46¢ $15 2h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 43¢ $10 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 44¢ $10 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 44¢ $5 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 44¢ $5 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 44¢ $20 3h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 46¢ $42 3h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $27 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Alastair Gray 3¢ $2 3h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 27¢ $20 4h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 54¢ $10 4h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 40¢ $31 4h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 30¢ $10 4h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 33¢ $15 4h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 20¢ $5 5h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 21¢ $6 5h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 31¢ $22 5h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 21¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $455.85 · official $455.76 (match) · 43 history records