Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:37:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
37 0x375b…0ebb weather 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$50 (+7%) realized +$36 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +44.7% +31.0% 67% 67% +15.2%
≤30d 6 +44.7% +31.0% 67% 67% +15.2%
≤90d 6 +44.7% +31.0% 67% 67% +15.2%
all 6 +44.7% +31.0% 67% 67% +15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.0% 67% +15.2%
10% +18.4% 50% +4.1%
15% +7.0% 33% -5.9%
20% -3.5% 17% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$50 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$324
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage7d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 22? No 66¢ 90¢ $80 $109 +$29 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 22? No 90¢ 80¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 22? No 89¢ 84¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $38 +$149 +387%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $71 +$18 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $121 +$14 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $93 −$90 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$22 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 49¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 89¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 82¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $101 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 79¢ $71 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $121 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323.77 · official $342.70 · 23 history records